{
 "hijri_year": 1447,
 "lock_date": "2026-02-04",
 "lock_date_h": "16 شعبان 1447",
 "ramadan": [
  "2026-02-18",
  "2026-03-19"
 ],
 "verdict_date": "2026-03-29",
 "data_through": "2026-01-18",
 "data_through_end": "2026-01-24",
 "input_rows_sha256": "af3749f08c8a6e204519dbd071169a44be33c727266ae3c66810f114d84f2c2f",
 "weeks": [
  {
   "start": "2026-02-22",
   "end": "2026-02-28",
   "ramadan_days": 7
  },
  {
   "start": "2026-03-01",
   "end": "2026-03-07",
   "ramadan_days": 7
  },
  {
   "start": "2026-03-08",
   "end": "2026-03-14",
   "ramadan_days": 7
  },
  {
   "start": "2026-03-15",
   "end": "2026-03-21",
   "ramadan_days": 5
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 ],
 "criteria": {
  "ksa_mape_max": 8.0,
  "cities_min": 7,
  "cities_total": 10,
  "city_weeks_min": 3,
  "weeks": 4
 },
 "method": {
  "name": "hybrid",
  "scripts": [
   "scripts/ramadan_lock.py",
   "scripts/backtest_oos.py",
   "scripts/backtest_playground.py"
  ],
  "band": "80%: exp(±Z80·sd) من آخر 26 خطأ لوغاريتمي للهجين عند الأفق نفسه",
  "Z80": 1.2816,
  "n_err": 26,
  "lag_days": 13,
  "units": "ألف ريال (value_k_sar)"
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  {
   "series": "KSA/furniture",
   "label": "المملكة — الأثاث والمستلزمات المنزلية",
   "level": "KSA_activity",
   "rule": "orig",
   "l52_ape_at_lock": 9.487,
   "weeks": [
    {
     "start": "2026-02-22",
     "step": 5,
     "fc_k": 489879,
     "lo_k": 401507,
     "hi_k": 597703,
     "sd_log": 0.15522
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-01",
     "step": 6,
     "fc_k": 513190,
     "lo_k": 402692,
     "hi_k": 654009,
     "sd_log": 0.1892
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-08",
     "step": 7,
     "fc_k": 594585,
     "lo_k": 453180,
     "hi_k": 780113,
     "sd_log": 0.2119
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-15",
     "step": 8,
     "fc_k": 491617,
     "lo_k": 363701,
     "hi_k": 664522,
     "sd_log": 0.23515
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "series": "KSA/recreation_culture",
   "label": "المملكة — الثقافة والترفيه",
   "level": "KSA_activity",
   "rule": "orig",
   "l52_ape_at_lock": 11.032,
   "weeks": [
    {
     "start": "2026-02-22",
     "step": 5,
     "fc_k": 361263,
     "lo_k": 290122,
     "hi_k": 449849,
     "sd_log": 0.17112
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-01",
     "step": 6,
     "fc_k": 390236,
     "lo_k": 308572,
     "hi_k": 493513,
     "sd_log": 0.18321
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-08",
     "step": 7,
     "fc_k": 487138,
     "lo_k": 381635,
     "hi_k": 621807,
     "sd_log": 0.19045
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-15",
     "step": 8,
     "fc_k": 562103,
     "lo_k": 432159,
     "hi_k": 731121,
     "sd_log": 0.20513
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "series": "KSA/telecom",
   "label": "المملكة — الاتصالات",
   "level": "KSA_activity",
   "rule": "orig",
   "l52_ape_at_lock": 8.761,
   "weeks": [
    {
     "start": "2026-02-22",
     "step": 5,
     "fc_k": 199864,
     "lo_k": 174704,
     "hi_k": 228647,
     "sd_log": 0.10498
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-01",
     "step": 6,
     "fc_k": 202555,
     "lo_k": 175049,
     "hi_k": 234383,
     "sd_log": 0.11388
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-08",
     "step": 7,
     "fc_k": 208305,
     "lo_k": 179586,
     "hi_k": 241618,
     "sd_log": 0.11576
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-15",
     "step": 8,
     "fc_k": 194560,
     "lo_k": 167157,
     "hi_k": 226456,
     "sd_log": 0.11845
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "series": "KSA/transportation",
   "label": "المملكة — النقل",
   "level": "KSA_activity",
   "rule": "orig",
   "l52_ape_at_lock": 9.507,
   "weeks": [
    {
     "start": "2026-02-22",
     "step": 5,
     "fc_k": 1057506,
     "lo_k": 921621,
     "hi_k": 1213426,
     "sd_log": 0.10731
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-01",
     "step": 6,
     "fc_k": 1143871,
     "lo_k": 976915,
     "hi_k": 1339360,
     "sd_log": 0.12311
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-08",
     "step": 7,
     "fc_k": 1202430,
     "lo_k": 1016794,
     "hi_k": 1421958,
     "sd_log": 0.13084
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-15",
     "step": 8,
     "fc_k": 832509,
     "lo_k": 695921,
     "hi_k": 995904,
     "sd_log": 0.13983
    }
   ]
  },
  {
   "series": "KSA/utilities",
   "label": "المملكة — المنافع والخدمات العامة",
   "level": "KSA_activity",
   "rule": "orig",
   "l52_ape_at_lock": 9.969,
   "weeks": [
    {
     "start": "2026-02-22",
     "step": 5,
     "fc_k": 56575,
     "lo_k": 45708,
     "hi_k": 70025,
     "sd_log": 0.16643
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-01",
     "step": 6,
     "fc_k": 51327,
     "lo_k": 41269,
     "hi_k": 63836,
     "sd_log": 0.17018
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-08",
     "step": 7,
     "fc_k": 51111,
     "lo_k": 41134,
     "hi_k": 63508,
     "sd_log": 0.16945
    },
    {
     "start": "2026-03-15",
     "step": 8,
     "fc_k": 44234,
     "lo_k": 35877,
     "hi_k": 54536,
     "sd_log": 0.16338
    }
   ]
  }
 ],
 "kind": "retro",
 "created_at": "2026-09-30T18:32:58Z",
 "note": "تجربة رجعية لا قفل حقيقي: شُغّل السكربت نفسه بعد انتهاء الموسم على بيانات مقطوعة عند يوم القفل. الطريقة صُممت بعد الاطلاع على كل التاريخ، والقيم هي آخر ما نشرته ساما (قد تكون عُدّلت بعد نشرها الأول).",
 "result": {
  "ksa_mape": 7.342,
  "cities_in": 7,
  "pass": true,
  "ksa_ok": true,
  "cities_ok": true,
  "series": {
   "KSA/total": {
    "mape": 7.342,
    "n_in": 2,
    "act_k": [
     14533498,
     16135144,
     16149247,
     14793365
    ]
   },
   "Riyadh/total": {
    "mape": 5.77,
    "n_in": 3,
    "act_k": [
     4862941,
     5350597,
     5328904,
     4698782
    ]
   },
   "Jeddah/total": {
    "mape": 6.83,
    "n_in": 2,
    "act_k": [
     1990295,
     2340402,
     2421418,
     2174940
    ]
   },
   "Makkah/total": {
    "mape": 4.208,
    "n_in": 3,
    "act_k": [
     872342,
     857687,
     1014404,
     886475
    ]
   },
   "Al-Madinah/total": {
    "mape": 9.685,
    "n_in": 3,
    "act_k": [
     614990,
     685375,
     737686,
     709415
    ]
   },
   "Dammam/total": {
    "mape": 4.855,
    "n_in": 4,
    "act_k": [
     688982,
     743653,
     734005,
     671014
    ]
   },
   "Al-Khubar/total": {
    "mape": 4.739,
    "n_in": 3,
    "act_k": [
     379614,
     410671,
     408115,
     396383
    ]
   },
   "Buraidah/total": {
    "mape": 9.221,
    "n_in": 1,
    "act_k": [
     370510,
     413508,
     413253,
     375665
    ]
   },
   "Abha/total": {
    "mape": 9.438,
    "n_in": 4,
    "act_k": [
     153046,
     175693,
     168511,
     152159
    ]
   },
   "Tabouk/total": {
    "mape": 10.224,
    "n_in": 3,
    "act_k": [
     254552,
     285730,
     255878,
     219766
    ]
   },
   "Hayel/total": {
    "mape": 12.031,
    "n_in": 2,
    "act_k": [
     226082,
     253709,
     240327,
     226466
    ]
   },
   "KSA/restaurants_cafes": {
    "mape": 15.196,
    "n_in": 2,
    "act_k": [
     1216931,
     1395723,
     1392442,
     1601667
    ]
   },
   "KSA/food_beverages": {
    "mape": 16.232,
    "n_in": 1,
    "act_k": [
     2325743,
     2499822,
     2257461,
     2114391
    ]
   },
   "KSA/apparel": {
    "mape": 13.349,
    "n_in": 3,
    "act_k": [
     1899191,
     2501967,
     2833146,
     2334244
    ]
   },
   "KSA/health": {
    "mape": 5.234,
    "n_in": 4,
    "act_k": [
     899673,
     972154,
     946300,
     823826
    ]
   },
   "KSA/gas_stations": {
    "mape": 10.904,
    "n_in": 2,
    "act_k": [
     875090,
     897895,
     840348,
     824532
    ]
   },
   "KSA/electronics": {
    "mape": 9.422,
    "n_in": 3,
    "act_k": [
     201040,
     206593,
     195388,
     151877
    ]
   },
   "KSA/hotels": {
    "mape": 16.323,
    "n_in": 2,
    "act_k": [
     376259,
     334829,
     449830,
     362386
    ]
   },
   "KSA/construction": {
    "mape": 4.834,
    "n_in": 3,
    "act_k": [
     378351,
     388545,
     371135,
     246698
    ]
   },
   "KSA/furniture": {
    "mape": 11.3,
    "n_in": 3,
    "act_k": [
     617530,
     606547,
     604801,
     457545
    ]
   },
   "KSA/recreation_culture": {
    "mape": 34.915,
    "n_in": 2,
    "act_k": [
     323434,
     338554,
     331426,
     339198
    ]
   },
   "KSA/telecom": {
    "mape": 7.244,
    "n_in": 4,
    "act_k": [
     196318,
     212814,
     188900,
     173596
    ]
   },
   "KSA/transportation": {
    "mape": 7.273,
    "n_in": 4,
    "act_k": [
     1167294,
     1128721,
     1080732,
     777435
    ]
   },
   "KSA/utilities": {
    "mape": 9.149,
    "n_in": 4,
    "act_k": [
     60014,
     62904,
     57976,
     44511
    ]
   }
  }
 }
}