The question
Ramadan 1448 begins on 8 February 2027 (1 Ramadan 1448 AH) according to the Umm al-Qura calendar, about three months away. What happened to people’s card spending around Ramadan in past years? When? And in which activity?
The figure
We reviewed 6 Ramadan seasons in the Saudi Central Bank’s weekly bulletins, from Ramadan 1442 (2021) to Ramadan 1447 (2026). In each season we compared card spending with its level about a month before Ramadan, that is, the average of the eighth to fifth weeks before the week in which Ramadan begins. The figure here is the median of the 6 seasons.
- In the two weeks before Ramadan, both in Sha’ban, total card spending rose 14.3%, and it rose in 6 seasons of 6. The median rose in 9 of the 9 activities in the table, most of all clothing and accessories 44.8%, then furniture and home supplies 28.5%, then food and beverages (groceries and supermarkets) 20.2%, then electronic and electrical devices 16.2%.
- In the first week of Ramadan the total returned close to its level before the month (0.5%). Spending at restaurants and cafés changed by −31.1%, and fell in 6 seasons of 6.
- In the last week before Eid al-Fitr the total rose 35.1%, and rose in 6 seasons of 6. The largest rise was in clothing, 246.5%, then jewellery, 145.9%, which rose in 6 seasons of 6.
Which activity moves, and when?
The table shows 9 activities and the total at three stages of the season. It shows the following:
Seasons are not identical. In Ramadan 1447 (2026) the total rose 8.0% in the two weeks before it, and groceries rose 20.3%.
- Shopping for the home comes before the month: groceries and furniture rise before Ramadan, then calm in its first week (groceries 5.6%), then furniture rises again before Eid, 34.1%.
- Restaurants and cafés fell in the first week of Ramadan in every season, and in the last week before Eid they were close to their level before Ramadan (3.0%).
- Clothing rises throughout the season: 51.6% in the first week of Ramadan, a rise in 6 seasons of 6, then it peaks before Eid.
- Some activities move little before Ramadan: fuel stations 3.1% and health 2.4%.
Shopping comes before Ramadan, restaurants are quieter at its start, and clothing peaks before Eid
Median of 6 Ramadan seasons (1442–1447 AH), compared with spending about a month before Ramadan.
| Activity | Two weeks before Ramadan | First week of Ramadan | Last week before Eid | Years with a rise before Ramadan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total card spending | 14.3% | 0.5% | 35.1% | 6 of 6 |
| Food and beverages (groceries and supermarkets) | 20.2% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 6 of 6 |
| Furniture and home supplies | 28.5% | 4.1% | 34.1% | 6 of 6 |
| Electronic and electrical devices | 16.2% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 6 of 6 |
| Clothing and accessories | 44.8% | 51.6% | 246.5% | 6 of 6 |
| Jewellery | 14.6% | 16.7% | 145.9% | 6 of 6 |
| Restaurants and cafés | 7.8% | −31.1% | 3.0% | 6 of 6 |
| Culture and recreation | 8.6% | −10.4% | 39.5% | 5 of 6 |
| Fuel stations | 3.1% | −7.1% | 6.2% | 5 of 6 |
| Health | 2.4% | −0.6% | 17.0% | 4 of 6 |
What this means for your decision
These figures describe what happened in past seasons; they are not a forecast of what will happen in Ramadan 1448, nor of any particular shop’s sales.
- For shop owners: spending rose in the two weeks before Ramadan in all 6 seasons, and this time those two weeks fall in Sha’ban, before 8 February 2027 (1 Ramadan 1448 AH). For the total, the last week before Eid was higher than the two weeks before Ramadan.
- For restaurant or café owners: spending fell in the first week of Ramadan in all 6 seasons, then returned close to its usual level before Eid.
- For households: the figures show when shops are busiest: the two weeks before Ramadan, then the last week before Eid for clothing and jewellery.
An analytical reading, not financial advice; the decision and its responsibility are yours.
Limits of the figure
- The figures are the value of card payments at points of sale, before adjusting for inflation. They do not include cash, nor online purchases outside points of sale.
- Only 6 seasons, and the median hides large differences between one year and another.
- Ramadan moves about 11 days earlier each year, so it falls at different times relative to end-of-month salary payments, holidays and seasons. These also move spending, and we do not separate them here from the effect of Ramadan.
- The Saudi Central Bank’s activity classification changed in mid-2025, and none of the 6 seasons crosses that change.
- The actual start of Ramadan is announced on sighting of the moon, and may differ by a day from the Umm al-Qura calendar.
Source: Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), weekly point-of-sale statistics; processing: DataPulse. Weeks up to mid-2025 as republished by the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), and later weeks from SAMA’s weekly bulletins. The calculation and comparison are DataPulse’s; they are not an official statistic and do not imply endorsement by SAMA or KAPSARC. We do not use the logo of either. The official reference is the Saudi Central Bank’s publications. Hijri dates follow the Umm al-Qura calendar.
The source statement in Arabic (the Arabic text governs; the English above is a summary)
المصدر: البنك المركزي السعودي (ساما)، نقاط البيع الأسبوعية؛ معالجة: نبض البيانات (datapulseactive.com). الأسابيع حتى منتصف 2025 كما أعاد نشرها مركز الملك عبدالله للدراسات والبحوث البترولية (كابسارك)، وما بعدها من النشرات الأسبوعية للبنك المركزي.
الحساب والمقارنة من إعداد «نبض البيانات» وليست إحصاءً رسميًا، ولا تعني تزكية من البنك المركزي ولا من كابسارك. لا نستخدم شعار أي منهما. المرجع الرسمي منشورات البنك المركزي السعودي. التواريخ الهجرية بتقويم أم القرى.
Full official figures: Ramadan 1448: the full analysis(Arabic) · DataPulse calendar(Arabic) · All insights(Arabic)
Translated from the Arabic reading; the Arabic text is the original. The original reading(Arabic)