Methodology · Forecast log · version 1.0
Forecast log: every estimate and what happened next
The data explorer(Arabic) shows an estimate for next week for 26 spending series, with the lowest and highest expected figure. Here we log every estimate, then put next to it what the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) actually published. We do not delete an estimate that missed.
Read this before the figures: the weeks from 21–27 September 2025 · 29 Rabi' al-Awwal – 5 Rabi' al-Akhir 1447 AH to 13–19 September 2026 · 2–8 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH were regenerated, not saved when published, because the estimate did not appear on the site before 30 September 2026 (19 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH). Estimates saved the day they appeared start with the week of 20–26 September 2026 · 9–15 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH.
80%of actuals fell inside the range since the log began (1,108 of 1,378 cases)
42/53weeks inside the range for the Saudi Arabia total
8.9%mean error across all series (on average we missed by this much per 100 riyals)
2/2weeks saved the day they appeared in the tool
How to read the log
- The range is designed to contain the actual in 8 of every 10 weeks. If the actual falls inside much less often, the range is too narrow; if always, it is too wide to be useful.
- Regenerated (52 weeks): computed on 30 September 2026 (19 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH) with the same method, each week from the data before it only, and with the seasonal rule chosen from weeks before 21 September 2025 (29 Rabi' al-Awwal 1447 AH). A fair test of the method, but not proof that we published this figure at the time. Result: inside the range 1,083 of 1,352 (80%), the same share published in the accuracy table.
- Saved when it appeared (2 weeks): the actual fell inside the range in 25 of 26 cases (96%).
- Error = (actual − estimate) ÷ actual. Positive means spending came in above the estimate.
- The actual comes later: SAMA publishes a week about three weeks after it, so the latest estimate stays “awaiting SAMA” until then.
Saudi Arabia total: estimate and actual, week by week
SAR million, latest first. The other 25 series (ten cities and 15 activities) are on the Arabic page(Arabic), with a chart for each, and all of them are in the CSV below.
Show or hide the table (54 weeks)
| Week | Estimate | Lowest – highest expected | Actual | Error | Inside the range? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 September – 3 October 2026 · 16–22 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AHSaved the day it appeared | 16,963.8 | 15,360.4 – 18,734.4 | — | — | Awaiting SAMA |
| 20–26 September 2026 · 9–15 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AHSaved the day it appeared | 13,247.6 | 11,917.0 – 14,726.7 | 13,372.9published by SAMA 26 September 2026 (15 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH) | +0.9% | Inside |
| 13–19 September 2026 · 2–8 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AHRegenerated | 12,911.0 | 11,550.1 – 14,432.3 | 12,922.0published by SAMA 19 September 2026 (8 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH) | +0.1% | Inside |
| 6–12 September 2026 · 24 Rabi' al-Awwal – 1 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AHRegenerated | 13,650.0 | 12,197.6 – 15,275.3 | 13,790.4published by SAMA 19 September 2026 (8 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH) | +1.0% | Inside |
| 30 August – 5 September 2026 · 17–23 Rabi' al-Awwal 1448 AHRegenerated | 15,583.9 | 13,904.0 – 17,466.7 | 15,836.3published by SAMA 19 September 2026 (8 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH) | +1.6% | Inside |
| 23–29 August 2026 · 10–16 Rabi' al-Awwal 1448 AHRegenerated | 16,668.6 | 14,864.6 – 18,691.5 | 15,799.4published by SAMA 19 September 2026 (8 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH) | −5.5% | Inside |
| 16–22 August 2026 · 3–9 Rabi' al-Awwal 1448 AHRegenerated | 14,078.3 | 12,543.4 – 15,801.1 | 14,173.2published by SAMA 12 September 2026 (1 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH) | +0.7% | Inside |
| 9–15 August 2026 · 26 Safar – 2 Rabi' al-Awwal 1448 AHRegenerated | 14,189.9 | 12,642.3 – 15,926.9 | 14,191.5published by SAMA 5 September 2026 (23 Rabi' al-Awwal 1448 AH) | 0.0% | Inside |
| 2–8 August 2026 · 19–25 Safar 1448 AHRegenerated | 14,466.8 | 12,876.6 – 16,253.3 | 14,596.0published by SAMA 29 August 2026 (16 Rabi' al-Awwal 1448 AH) | +0.9% | Inside |
| 26 July – 1 August 2026 · 12–18 Safar 1448 AHRegenerated | 17,110.1 | 15,206.1 – 19,252.5 | 16,310.6published by SAMA 22 August 2026 (9 Rabi' al-Awwal 1448 AH) | −4.9% | Inside |
| 19–25 July 2026 · 5–11 Safar 1448 AHRegenerated | 12,663.5 | 11,258.1 – 14,244.5 | 12,263.7published by SAMA 15 August 2026 (2 Rabi' al-Awwal 1448 AH) | −3.3% | Inside |
| 12–18 July 2026 · 27 Muharram – 4 Safar 1448 AHRegenerated | 13,167.8 | 11,669.5 – 14,858.3 | 13,024.4published by SAMA 8 August 2026 (25 Safar 1448 AH) | −1.1% | Inside |
| 5–11 July 2026 · 20–26 Muharram 1448 AHRegenerated | 14,483.0 | 12,839.8 – 16,336.4 | 14,235.6published by SAMA 1 August 2026 (18 Safar 1448 AH) | −1.7% | Inside |
| 28 June – 4 July 2026 · 13–19 Muharram 1448 AHRegenerated | 14,923.8 | 13,242.9 – 16,818.1 | 16,929.5published by SAMA 25 July 2026 (11 Safar 1448 AH) | +11.8% | Outside |
| 21–27 June 2026 · 6–12 Muharram 1448 AHRegenerated | 14,139.3 | 12,560.5 – 15,916.6 | 12,604.7published by SAMA 18 July 2026 (4 Safar 1448 AH) | −12.2% | Inside |
| 14–20 June 2026 · 28 Dhu al-Hijjah 1447 – 5 Muharram 1448 AHRegenerated | 14,234.6 | 12,741.7 – 15,902.4 | 12,372.2published by SAMA 11 July 2026 (26 Muharram 1448 AH) | −15.1% | Outside |
| 7–13 June 2026 · 21–27 Dhu al-Hijjah 1447 AHRegenerated | 13,536.7 | 12,123.6 – 15,114.6 | 13,227.1published by SAMA 4 July 2026 (19 Muharram 1448 AH) | −2.3% | Inside |
| 31 May – 6 June 2026 · 14–20 Dhu al-Hijjah 1447 AHRegenerated | 12,618.2 | 11,307.2 – 14,081.1 | 13,767.8published by SAMA 27 June 2026 (12 Muharram 1448 AH) | +8.4% | Inside |
| 24–30 May 2026 · 7–13 Dhu al-Hijjah 1447 AHRegenerated | 12,370.8 | 11,143.4 – 13,733.3 | 14,381.4published by SAMA 13 June 2026 (27 Dhu al-Hijjah 1447 AH) | +14.0% | Outside |
| 17–23 May 2026 · 30 Dhu al-Qa'dah – 6 Dhu al-Hijjah 1447 AHRegenerated | 12,654.9 | 11,432.9 – 14,007.5 | 14,263.6published by SAMA 13 June 2026 (27 Dhu al-Hijjah 1447 AH) | +11.3% | Outside |
| 10–16 May 2026 · 23–29 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1447 AHRegenerated | 13,299.2 | 11,994.3 – 14,746.0 | 13,678.4published by SAMA 30 May 2026 (13 Dhu al-Hijjah 1447 AH) | +2.8% | Inside |
| 3–9 May 2026 · 16–22 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1447 AHRegenerated | 14,081.2 | 12,686.7 – 15,629.0 | 14,170.6published by SAMA 30 May 2026 (13 Dhu al-Hijjah 1447 AH) | +0.6% | Inside |
| 26 April – 2 May 2026 · 9–15 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1447 AHRegenerated | 17,785.3 | 16,040.0 – 19,720.5 | 16,631.5published by SAMA 16 May 2026 (29 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1447 AH) | −6.9% | Inside |
| 19–25 April 2026 · 2–8 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1447 AHRegenerated | 11,151.7 | 10,070.9 – 12,348.4 | 12,076.2published by SAMA 16 May 2026 (29 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1447 AH) | +7.7% | Inside |
| 12–18 April 2026 · 24 Shawwal – 1 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1447 AHRegenerated | 13,304.0 | 12,043.7 – 14,696.2 | 12,311.0published by SAMA 9 May 2026 (22 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1447 AH) | −8.1% | Inside |
| 5–11 April 2026 · 17–23 Shawwal 1447 AHRegenerated | 14,525.4 | 13,187.8 – 15,998.8 | 13,374.0published by SAMA 2 May 2026 (15 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1447 AH) | −8.6% | Inside |
| 29 March – 4 April 2026 · 10–16 Shawwal 1447 AHRegenerated | 12,548.1 | 11,433.4 – 13,771.5 | 14,707.4published by SAMA 25 April 2026 (8 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1447 AH) | +14.7% | Outside |
| 22–28 March 2026 · 3–9 Shawwal 1447 AHRegenerated | 11,148.5 | 10,160.5 – 12,232.6 | 12,969.7published by SAMA 18 April 2026 (1 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1447 AH) | +14.0% | Outside |
| 15–21 March 2026 · 26 Ramadan – 2 Shawwal 1447 AHRegenerated | 16,798.5 | 15,369.6 – 18,360.2 | 14,793.4published by SAMA 11 April 2026 (23 Shawwal 1447 AH) | −13.6% | Outside |
| 8–14 March 2026 · 19–25 Ramadan 1447 AHRegenerated | 17,099.5 | 15,663.9 – 18,666.6 | 16,149.2published by SAMA 4 April 2026 (16 Shawwal 1447 AH) | −5.9% | Inside |
| 1–7 March 2026 · 12–18 Ramadan 1447 AHRegenerated | 14,911.0 | 13,681.4 – 16,251.0 | 16,135.1published by SAMA 28 March 2026 (9 Shawwal 1447 AH) | +7.6% | Inside |
| 22–28 February 2026 · 5–11 Ramadan 1447 AHRegenerated | 13,380.4 | 12,291.6 – 14,565.7 | 14,533.5published by SAMA 21 March 2026 (2 Shawwal 1447 AH) | +7.9% | Inside |
| 15–21 February 2026 · 27 Sha'ban – 4 Ramadan 1447 AHRegenerated | 14,561.9 | 13,343.5 – 15,891.6 | 13,904.8published by SAMA 7 March 2026 (18 Ramadan 1447 AH) | −4.7% | Inside |
| 8–14 February 2026 · 20–26 Sha'ban 1447 AHRegenerated | 14,969.0 | 13,686.3 – 16,372.0 | 15,336.6published by SAMA 7 March 2026 (18 Ramadan 1447 AH) | +2.4% | Inside |
| 1–7 February 2026 · 13–19 Sha'ban 1447 AHRegenerated | 15,024.2 | 13,752.5 – 16,413.4 | 16,105.4published by SAMA 28 February 2026 (11 Ramadan 1447 AH) | +6.7% | Inside |
| 25–31 January 2026 · 6–12 Sha'ban 1447 AHRegenerated | 17,390.1 | 15,958.6 – 18,950.0 | 16,001.2published by SAMA 21 February 2026 (4 Ramadan 1447 AH) | −8.7% | Inside |
| 18–24 January 2026 · 29 Rajab – 5 Sha'ban 1447 AHRegenerated | 12,026.9 | 11,036.8 – 13,105.8 | 12,521.2published by SAMA 14 February 2026 (26 Sha'ban 1447 AH) | +3.9% | Inside |
| 11–17 January 2026 · 22–28 Rajab 1447 AHRegenerated | 12,339.8 | 11,398.6 – 13,358.9 | 14,005.8published by SAMA 7 February 2026 (19 Sha'ban 1447 AH) | +11.9% | Outside |
| 4–10 January 2026 · 15–21 Rajab 1447 AHRegenerated | 13,969.3 | 12,887.3 – 15,142.1 | 14,200.1published by SAMA 31 January 2026 (12 Sha'ban 1447 AH) | +1.6% | Inside |
| 28 December 2025 – 3 January 2026 · 8–14 Rajab 1447 AHRegenerated | 15,262.3 | 14,141.2 – 16,472.3 | 17,016.8published by SAMA 24 January 2026 (5 Sha'ban 1447 AH) | +10.3% | Outside |
| 21–27 December 2025 · 1–7 Rajab 1447 AHRegenerated | 14,387.8 | 13,356.5 – 15,498.7 | 13,028.1published by SAMA 17 January 2026 (28 Rajab 1447 AH) | −10.4% | Outside |
| 14–20 December 2025 · 23–29 Jumada al-Akhirah 1447 AHRegenerated | 12,351.4 | 11,396.5 – 13,386.2 | 12,488.4published by SAMA 10 January 2026 (21 Rajab 1447 AH) | +1.1% | Inside |
| 7–13 December 2025 · 16–22 Jumada al-Akhirah 1447 AHRegenerated | 13,292.6 | 12,243.0 – 14,432.2 | 13,311.3published by SAMA 3 January 2026 (14 Rajab 1447 AH) | +0.1% | Inside |
| 30 November – 6 December 2025 · 9–15 Jumada al-Akhirah 1447 AHRegenerated | 14,739.1 | 13,576.9 – 16,000.9 | 14,447.7published by SAMA 20 December 2025 (29 Jumada al-Akhirah 1447 AH) | −2.0% | Inside |
| 23–29 November 2025 · 2–8 Jumada al-Akhirah 1447 AHRegenerated | 14,864.9 | 13,689.9 – 16,140.8 | 15,098.4published by SAMA 20 December 2025 (29 Jumada al-Akhirah 1447 AH) | +1.5% | Inside |
| 16–22 November 2025 · 25 Jumada al-Ula – 1 Jumada al-Akhirah 1447 AHRegenerated | 11,843.0 | 10,922.0 – 12,841.6 | 12,503.8published by SAMA 13 December 2025 (22 Jumada al-Akhirah 1447 AH) | +5.3% | Inside |
| 9–15 November 2025 · 18–24 Jumada al-Ula 1447 AHRegenerated | 13,904.4 | 12,839.6 – 15,057.4 | 13,078.0published by SAMA 6 December 2025 (15 Jumada al-Akhirah 1447 AH) | −6.3% | Inside |
| 2–8 November 2025 · 11–17 Jumada al-Ula 1447 AHRegenerated | 14,363.4 | 13,268.8 – 15,548.3 | 13,714.7published by SAMA 29 November 2025 (8 Jumada al-Akhirah 1447 AH) | −4.7% | Inside |
| 26 October – 1 November 2025 · 4–10 Jumada al-Ula 1447 AHRegenerated | 16,727.0 | 15,068.1 – 18,568.6 | 16,027.3published by SAMA 15 November 2025 (24 Jumada al-Ula 1447 AH) | −4.4% | Inside |
| 19–25 October 2025 · 27 Rabi' al-Akhir – 3 Jumada al-Ula 1447 AHRegenerated | 11,924.3 | 10,584.8 – 13,433.2 | 11,689.3published by SAMA 15 November 2025 (24 Jumada al-Ula 1447 AH) | −2.0% | Inside |
| 12–18 October 2025 · 20–26 Rabi' al-Akhir 1447 AHRegenerated | 12,101.7 | 10,715.2 – 13,667.7 | 12,207.3published by SAMA 1 November 2025 (10 Jumada al-Ula 1447 AH) | +0.9% | Inside |
| 5–11 October 2025 · 13–19 Rabi' al-Akhir 1447 AHRegenerated | 13,024.2 | 11,533.7 – 14,707.3 | 13,419.0published by SAMA 1 November 2025 (10 Jumada al-Ula 1447 AH) | +2.9% | Inside |
| 28 September – 4 October 2025 · 6–12 Rabi' al-Akhir 1447 AHRegenerated | 14,361.1 | 12,661.5 – 16,288.7 | 16,147.2published by SAMA 25 October 2025 (3 Jumada al-Ula 1447 AH) | +11.1% | Inside |
| 21–27 September 2025 · 29 Rabi' al-Awwal – 5 Rabi' al-Akhir 1447 AHRegenerated | 14,607.8 | 12,787.0 – 16,687.8 | 12,771.9published by SAMA 27 September 2025 (5 Rabi' al-Akhir 1447 AH) | −14.4% | Outside |
Summary for each series
| Series | Inside the range | Weeks with an actual | Share | Mean error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia (total) | 42 | 53 | 79% | 5.9% |
| Riyadh | 41 | 53 | 77% | 4.9% |
| Jeddah | 42 | 53 | 79% | 5.4% |
| Makkah | 44 | 53 | 83% | 8.4% |
| Madinah | 41 | 53 | 77% | 8.2% |
| Dammam | 45 | 53 | 85% | 4.9% |
| Al-Khobar | 43 | 53 | 81% | 4.9% |
| Buraidah | 42 | 53 | 79% | 6.5% |
| Abha | 46 | 53 | 87% | 7.4% |
| Tabuk | 40 | 53 | 75% | 8.2% |
| Hail | 39 | 53 | 74% | 8.8% |
| Restaurants & cafés | 41 | 53 | 77% | 6.8% |
| Food & Beverages | 43 | 53 | 81% | 6.9% |
| Apparel, Clothing & Accessories | 45 | 53 | 85% | 10.5% |
| Health | 41 | 53 | 77% | 6.3% |
| Gas Stations | 41 | 53 | 77% | 4.0% |
| Electronic & Electric Devices | 43 | 53 | 81% | 7.2% |
| Hotels | 43 | 53 | 81% | 11.6% |
| Construction & Building Materials | 41 | 53 | 77% | 4.9% |
| Education | 45 | 53 | 85% | 38.4% |
| Furniture & Home Supplies | 44 | 53 | 83% | 9.6% |
| Jewelry | 40 | 53 | 75% | 17.7% |
| Recreation & Culture | 47 | 53 | 89% | 10.6% |
| Telecommunication | 44 | 53 | 83% | 8.4% |
| Transportation | 42 | 53 | 79% | 8.4% |
| Public Utilities & Services | 43 | 53 | 81% | 6.4% |
“A short base”: each series has only 53 weeks and one Ramadan. One series’ share moves a lot with a week or two. Series with large errors (education and jewelry, for example) are flagged in the accuracy table.
How we store the estimate
- One file per week that is never edited: all series’ estimates for one week in a file named after that week, with a SHA-256 fingerprint. The program refuses to write over an existing file, and any later edit shows in its fingerprint.
- Why we regenerate every night: the nightly build works from a temporary copy and saves nothing to our repository. But the method is deterministic and cut off by date: any week’s estimate sees only the data before it, and the seasonal rule comes from the accuracy table that was latest on the day it appeared. So every build regenerates the whole log and produces the same figures.
- The saved file is the reference: where a saved file exists for a week we show it and compare it with the regeneration. If they differ (because SAMA revised an old figure, for example) we say so at the top of the page and do not correct the saved file.
- What is not saved yet is labelled “regenerated in today’s build”, and we fix it in the repository at the next update.
- If the seasonal rule changes with a new accuracy table while the week is still shown, the log keeps the first estimate.
Download: the full log (CSV) · fingerprint list · week files in the folder /methodology/forecast-log/data/ (one JSON file per week with its fingerprint). To verify: sha256sum -c SHA256SUMS
Sources
| Data | What we used | Latest week | Version date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Central Bank (SAMA): weekly point-of-sale bulletin | Weekly payment value for Saudi Arabia, the ten cities and 15 activities for Saudi Arabia. The actual in the table is as SAMA published it, with the bulletin date next to it. | 20–26 September 2026 · 9–15 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH | 26 September 2026 (15 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH) |
| DataPulse: the estimate and its range | The hybrid method and 80% range as in the next-week forecast accuracy. The estimate is our own analysis, not an official figure. | 27 September – 3 October 2026 · 16–22 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH | 5 October 2026 (24 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH) |
Source: Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), weekly point-of-sale bulletin, attributed to it. The estimates and errors are calculated by DataPulse and are not official statistics.
The attribution wording in Arabic (the Arabic text governs; the English above is a summary)
المصدر: البنك المركزي السعودي (ساما)، النشرة الأسبوعية لنقاط البيع، منسوبة إليه. التقديرات والأخطاء من حساب «نبض البيانات» وليست إحصاءً رسميًا.
The log is rebuilt automatically every night, and publishing stops if any figure on this page differs from its recalculation from the files. Version 1.0, 30 September 2026 (19 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH).