Indicators · Cost of living · latest data August 2026 (Safar – Rabi' al-Awwal 1448 AH) · published by GASTAT 15 September 2026 (4 Rabi' al-Akhir 1448 AH) · Estimate
Cost of living in your region: how much it has risen, and where it is heading
From GASTAT figures we calculate how many extra riyals a household pays each month to buy what it bought in 2023, estimate the direction of prices for the next six months in each region, and show next to each estimate how large our errors have been in the past.
highest and lowest expected figure: +1.1% – +3.1%
What this means for your decision: if your salary, the prices of your goods or your rent rose by less than the cost-of-living rate in your region, their real value fell. The estimate shows the expected rate for the coming months, so any increase below it means a loss of real value. This is an analytical reading, not financial advice; the decision and its responsibility rest with you.
Regions: now, and in 3 and 6 months
Ranked from the highest rise now. “Extra riyals” = what the average household in the region spends per month (2023 survey) × the rise in prices since 2023.
| Region | Prices now vs. last year | Estimate November 2026 (Jumada al-Ula – Jumada al-Akhirah 1448 AH) | Estimate February 2027 (Sha'ban – Ramadan 1448 AH) | Household spending per month (2023, SAR) | Extra riyals now | Expected extra riyals February 2027 (Sha'ban – Ramadan 1448 AH) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | +1.8% | +2.0%range +1.3% – +2.8% | +1.7%range +1.1% – +3.1% | 9,426 | 545 | 590 |
| Al-Jouf | +4.3% | +5.2%range +4.5% – +6.0% | +4.1%range +3.5% – +5.5% | 8,756 | 575 | 675 |
| Northern Borders | +3.6% | +3.9%range +3.3% – +4.7% | +3.0%range +2.4% – +4.5% | 10,123 | 617 | 712 |
| Najran | +2.4% | +2.4%range +1.7% – +3.2% | +1.9%range +1.3% – +3.3% | 7,025 | 604 | 649 |
| Riyadh | +2.3% | +2.1%range +1.5% – +2.9% | +1.6%range +1.0% – +3.0% | 10,664 | 862 | 926 |
| Hail | +2.2% | +1.8%range +1.2% – +2.6% | +1.9%range +1.3% – +3.4% | 7,273 | 409 | 451 |
| Al-Baha | +2.0% | +2.7%range +2.0% – +3.5% | +2.4%range +1.8% – +3.8% | 10,991 | 518 | 576 |
| Makkah | +1.8% | +2.1%range +1.4% – +2.9% | +1.9%range +1.3% – +3.4% | 8,041 | 289 | 325 |
| Eastern Province | +1.7% | +2.1%range +1.4% – +2.9% | +1.9%range +1.3% – +3.4% | 10,092 | 446 | 490 |
| Tabuk | +1.5% | +1.6%range +0.9% – +2.4% | +2.4%range +1.8% – +3.9% | 9,090 | 240 | 276 |
| Madinah | +1.5% | +1.8%range +1.1% – +2.5% | +2.0%range +1.4% – +3.5% | 8,775 | 682 | 716 |
| Asir | +1.3% | +2.3%range +1.7% – +3.1% | +1.9%range +1.3% – +3.4% | 8,429 | 262 | 290 |
| Jazan | +0.9% | +1.0%range +0.4% – +1.8% | +1.0%range +0.4% – +2.5% | 12,839 | 542 | 572 |
| Qassim | −0.4% | −1.3%range −2.0% – −0.6% | −1.4%range −2.0% – 0.0% | 8,387 | 644 | 633 |
The highest rise now is in Al-Jouf (+4.3%) and the lowest in Qassim (−0.4%). The difference between regions is real but small in any single month; look at the trend over several months in the chart below before comparing two regions.
Where the rise falls in the household budget
Saudi Arabia, ranked by what the household spends on each item. The largest increase in riyals since 2023: Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (SAR 240 per month).
| Item | Household spending per month (2023, SAR) | Prices now vs. last year | Estimate February 2027 (Sha'ban – Ramadan 1448 AH) | Extra riyals now since 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 2,625 | +1.4% | +2.4%range +1.3% – +4.3% | 84 |
| Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels | 1,332 | +3.9% | +2.9%range +1.8% – +4.8% | 240 |
| Restaurants and accommodation | 1,100 | +1.4% | +1.2%range +0.1% – +3.1% | 90 |
| Transport | 989 | +2.0% | +2.4%range +1.3% – +4.3% | 32 |
| Clothing and footwear | 901 | −0.5% | −0.1%range −1.2% – +1.8% | -32 |
| Furnishings, household equipment and maintenance | 656 | −0.6% | 0.0%range −1.1% – +1.9% | -17 |
| Personal care and miscellaneous goods and services | 530 | +3.5% | −0.5%range −1.6% – +1.4% | 62 |
| Information and communication | 484 | +0.4% | 0.0%range −1.1% – +1.9% | -9 |
| Recreation, sport and culture | 338 | +2.8% | +2.6%range +1.6% – +4.6% | 23 |
| Health | 177 | +0.2% | +0.2%range −0.8% – +2.2% | 0 |
| Education | 121 | +0.4% | +0.2%range −0.9% – +2.1% | 3 |
| Insurance and finance | 101 | +1.7% | +2.7%range +1.6% – +4.6% | 8 |
| Tobacco | 71 | +0.3% | +0.2%range −0.9% – +2.1% | 0 |
What we estimated in the past, and what happened
The line is the rise in prices in Saudi Arabia as published by GASTAT. Each dot is what our method would have estimated for that month 3 months earlier, using only the data available at the time. The shaded area is the highest and lowest expected figure for the coming months.
Source: GASTAT, consumer price index up to August 2026 (Safar – Rabi' al-Awwal 1448 AH); the estimates are DataPulse calculations. Axis: month/year.
How we estimate
- Three simple rules every month: (a) prices stay at their current level, (b) prices keep rising at the pace of the last 12 months, (c) the midpoint between the two rules. We use no opinions and no news; only the figures.
- We pick the rule by its record: each month we pick the rule with the smallest error over the last 36 months, counting only estimates whose outcome was known before that month. The rule chosen now (for Saudi Arabia and the regions): for the next 1–4 months: prices keep rising at the pace of the last 12 months; for the next 5–6 months: the midpoint between the two rules. The choice is made for each horizon separately and may change from month to month.
- Highest and lowest expected figure: from our actual errors over the same 36 months; in the past the actual figure fell inside this range in about 8 of every 10 cases.
- Updates itself: with every monthly GASTAT release we recalculate everything and add the month’s result to the accuracy record below.
How accurate our estimates are
Everything in these tables is an estimate recalculated for each past month using only the data available at the time, then compared with what GASTAT published afterwards. “Point” means percentage point: an estimate of 2.0% against an actual 2.5% is an error of half a point. We compare with the simplest possible estimate: “the price rise stays as it is now”.
The thirteen regions and Saudi Arabia, since January 2023 (Jumada al-Akhirah – Rajab 1444 AH)
| Estimate | Our average error | Error of “stays the same” | Smaller error by | Actual inside the range | Error of half a point or less | Tests |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After 1 month | 0.2 pt | 0.3 pt | 28% | 85% | 89% | 602 |
| After 3 months | 0.5 pt | 0.6 pt | 25% | 89% | 64% | 574 |
| After 6 months | 0.8 pt | 0.9 pt | 19% | 91% | 42% | 532 |
Spending items in Saudi Arabia, since January 2023 (Jumada al-Akhirah – Rajab 1444 AH)
| Estimate | Our average error | Error of “stays the same” | Smaller error by | Actual inside the range | Error of half a point or less | Tests |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After 1 month | 0.3 pt | 0.5 pt | 28% | 84% | 79% | 559 |
| After 3 months | 0.7 pt | 0.9 pt | 25% | 85% | 56% | 533 |
| After 6 months | 1.1 pt | 1.4 pt | 23% | 87% | 42% | 494 |
A harder period: 2019–2022 (regions)
| Estimate | Our average error | Error of “stays the same” | Smaller error by | Actual inside the range | Error of half a point or less | Tests |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| After 1 month | 0.4 pt | 0.7 pt | 40% | 82% | 81% | 672 |
| After 3 months | 1.0 pt | 1.6 pt | 40% | 85% | 49% | 672 |
| After 6 months | 1.6 pt | 2.6 pt | 38% | 83% | 29% | 672 |
In July 2020 (Dhu al-Qa'dah – Dhu al-Hijjah 1441 AH) VAT was raised from 5% to 15%, and prices jumped. No calculation can foresee a government decision, which is why the error in that period was twice the error after it. Our estimate assumes no new decisions on VAT, fuel prices or fees.
File of all past estimates and the actual figure for every region, item and month: forecast_history.csv
Limits of the figure
- The estimate is an estimate of the direction of the average price of the household basket, not of the price of a particular good or of the prices in your shop.
- GASTAT publishes prices by administrative region (13 regions), not by city.
- “Extra riyals” assume the household buys the same things it bought in 2023; households change what they buy when prices rise, so the actual figure differs for each household.
- Household spending is from the Household Expenditure Survey 2023 (sample averages): cash spending on consumption, excluding buying a home.
- The next six months only; we publish no estimate further ahead, because the error grows with distance.
Source
These indicators rely on data published by the General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) (the official source of the original data), which have been adjusted, combined with other sources, and used to calculate indicators and estimates. The derived indicators and the estimates are DataPulse’s own work, not official statistics; they do not represent GASTAT and do not imply its endorsement. Latest data used: August 2026 (Safar – Rabi' al-Awwal 1448 AH).
Sources: Consumer Price Index (base 2023 = 100) and Household Expenditure Survey 2023, GASTAT. Official figures as published · GASTAT data use policy. We do not use GASTAT’s logo or marks.
The attribution statement in Arabic (the Arabic text governs; the English above is a summary)
تعتمد هذه المؤشرات على بيانات منشورة من الهيئة العامة للإحصاء (المصدر الرسمي للبيانات الأصلية)، وقد جرى تعديلها ودمجها مع مصادر أخرى وحساب مؤشرات وتوقعات منها. المؤشرات المشتقة والتوقعات اجتهاد «نبض البيانات» وليست إحصاءات رسمية، ولا تمثّل الهيئة العامة للإحصاء ولا تعني تزكيتها. آخر بيانات مستخدمة: أغسطس 2026 (صفر – ربيع الأول 1448).
المصادر: الرقم القياسي لأسعار المستهلك (أساس 2023 = 100) ومسح إنفاق الأسرة 2023، الهيئة العامة للإحصاء. الأرقام الرسمية كما نُشرت · سياسة استخدام بيانات الهيئة. لا نستخدم شعار الهيئة ولا علاماتها.
The estimate is a statistical estimate; it is not a promise, nor advice to buy or sell anything.