Indicators · Season heat · the 52 weeks from 15 November 2026 (5 Jumada al-Akhirah 1448 AH) to 13 November 2027 (14 Jumada al-Akhirah 1449 AH)

Season heat: which weeks of the coming year were historically the busiest?

Computed by DataPulse Saudi: each of the next 52 weeks gets a score from 1 to 5, from what happened to spending in the same Hijri week in past years, plus the effect of salary days and official holidays, and the usual price change in the same Hijri month. A description of what happened in the past, not a forecast.

In Saudi Arabia: 11 weeks with a score of 5 in the coming year; the busiest is 28 February – 6 March 2027 · 21–27 Ramadan 1448 AH. In past years the score matched what happened in 36% of weeks.

21 of 52weeks scoring 4 or 5 in Saudi Arabia, of which 11 score 5. The quietest (1 or 2): 16 weeks

36%of weeks where the score matched what actually happened in the following year, and 74% within one point (196 weeks in 4 Hijri years)

+13.8%how much higher spending in Saudi Arabia is, on average, in a salary week than in a normal week, over 55 salary weeks since 2020; the largest Gregorian effect in the score

What this means for your decision: the score says when people used to spend more or less than usual at this time of year. A shop owner can use weeks scoring 4 and 5 to prepare stock and staff ahead of them, and weeks scoring 1 and 2 for leave, maintenance and stocktaking. It does not say how much you will sell: the score is for the whole Kingdom or city, and it matched what happened in only 36% of weeks.

Saudi Arabia: the score of each week in the coming year

1 2 3 4 5 — score 1 = much quieter than a normal week, 3 = normal, 5 = much busier
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Part of this description is already in the calendar (“spending heat” for each day), with the same thresholds.

Saudi Arabia and the ten cities

1 2 3 4 5 — each square is a week (Sunday to Saturday). The ten cities are those whose weekly spending the Saudi Central Bank has published since 2020, so they have six years of history.

Place	Weeks scoring 5	Weeks scoring 4 or 5	Weeks scoring 1 or 2	Busiest week (total)	Matched what happened	Within one point	If we always said “3”
Saudi Arabia	11	21	16	28 February – 6 March 2027 · 21–27 Ramadan 1448 AH (+40.3%)	36%	74%	19%
Riyadh	10	23	13	28 February – 6 March 2027 · 21–27 Ramadan 1448 AH (+26.9%)	39%	79%	23%
Jeddah	7	17	15	28 February – 6 March 2027 · 21–27 Ramadan 1448 AH (+45.5%)	35%	75%	21%
Makkah	11	15	22	28 February – 6 March 2027 · 21–27 Ramadan 1448 AH (+98.5%)	46%	78%	15%
Madinah	10	21	17	28 February – 6 March 2027 · 21–27 Ramadan 1448 AH (+64.4%)	37%	74%	19%
Dammam	11	22	13	28 February – 6 March 2027 · 21–27 Ramadan 1448 AH (+28.6%)	37%	77%	22%
Al Khobar	9	22	12	28 February – 6 March 2027 · 21–27 Ramadan 1448 AH (+23.5%)	33%	79%	30%
Abha	14	23	24	27 June – 3 July 2027 · 22–28 Muharram 1449 AH (+48.9%)	48%	73%	11%
Buraidah	11	20	16	28 February – 6 March 2027 · 21–27 Ramadan 1448 AH (+40.4%)	35%	73%	18%
Hail	14	22	19	28 February – 6 March 2027 · 21–27 Ramadan 1448 AH (+50.1%)	34%	65%	15%
Tabuk	14	25	19	28 February – 6 March 2027 · 21–27 Ramadan 1448 AH (+40.2%)	36%	66%	13%

The last three columns come from the test on past years (below) for each place.

Season by season: Ramadan against Ramadan

The average card spending in Saudi Arabia on each day of the Hijri season, compared with the same season in the Hijri year before. We compare per day because a Hijri month has 29 or 30 days.

Ramadan 1447 AH: −1.0% a day on Ramadan 1446 AH, after +16.0% the year before. Figures are before inflation.

Season	1445 AH (2024)	1446 AH (2025)	1447 AH (2026)
Ramadan	1.9 SAR bn a day +6.6% on 1444 AH	2.2 SAR bn a day +16.0% on 1445 AH	2.2 SAR bn a day −1.0% on 1446 AH
Eid al-Fitr week (1–7 Shawwal)	1.5 SAR bn a day −0.1% on 1444 AH	1.5 SAR bn a day −2.7% on 1445 AH	1.9 SAR bn a day +28.0% on 1446 AH
Hajj and Eid al-Adha (1–13 Dhu al-Hijjah)	1.8 SAR bn a day +1.0% on 1444 AH	2.0 SAR bn a day +14.4% on 1445 AH	2.0 SAR bn a day +1.6% on 1446 AH

Dates follow the Umm al-Qura calendar; the start of a month by moon sighting may differ by a day. For a week that falls partly in the season we take the share of its days, an estimate because spending is not spread evenly over the week, so the Eid week is the most affected. Card spending at points of sale only.

How often did the score match what happened?

For each past Hijri year we calculated the scores of its weeks from the years before it alone, then compared them with what actually happened to spending in each week (with the same thresholds). The last column is a benchmark: how many weeks were actually “normal” (3), i.e. what we would have got right by saying 3 for every week.

Hijri year (Saudi Arabia)	Weeks	Score matched	Within one point	If we always said “3”
1444 AH (from 30 July 2022 · 1 Muharram 1444 AH)	50	30%	62%	16%
1445 AH (from 19 July 2023 · 1 Muharram 1445 AH)	51	41%	84%	18%
1446 AH (from 7 July 2024 · 1 Muharram 1446 AH)	51	31%	73%	24%
1447 AH (from 26 June 2025 · 1 Muharram 1447 AH)	44	43%	80%	20%
Total	196	36%	74%	19%

Read the accuracy as it is: the score hits the week exactly in about 36% of cases, and comes close (one point off) in 74%. It does better than saying “every week is normal” (19%), but it misses the week by two points or more in about a quarter of cases. The latest year is incomplete: it contains only the weeks for which the average around them could be calculated.

Each week and its components (Saudi Arabia)

The 52 weeks in detail

Week	In it	Spending in the same Hijri week	Salaries and official holidays	Seasonal prices	Total	Score
15–21 November 2026 · 5–11 Jumada al-Akhirah 1448 AH	autumn break (schools)	+3.7% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	+3.6%	4
22–28 November 2026 · 12–18 Jumada al-Akhirah 1448 AH	salaries, autumn break (schools)	−3.2% (6 years)	+13.8%	less than 0.1%	+10.5%	5
29 November – 5 December 2026 · 19–25 Jumada al-Akhirah 1448 AH	—	−4.0% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−4.0%	2
6–12 December 2026 · 26 Jumada al-Akhirah – 3 Rajab 1448 AH	—	−4.0% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−4.0%	2
13–19 December 2026 · 4–10 Rajab 1448 AH	—	−4.4% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−4.4%	2
20–26 December 2026 · 11–17 Rajab 1448 AH	—	−0.4% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−0.4%	3
27 December 2026 – 2 January 2027 · 18–24 Rajab 1448 AH	salaries	+0.9% (6 years)	+13.8%	less than 0.1%	+14.6%	5
3–9 January 2027 · 25 Rajab – 1 Sha'ban 1448 AH	mid-year break (schools)	−1.3% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−1.3%	3
10–16 January 2027 · 2–8 Sha'ban 1448 AH	mid-year break (schools)	−2.6% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	−0.1%	−2.7%	3
17–23 January 2027 · 9–15 Sha'ban 1448 AH	—	+7.6% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	−0.1%	+7.6%	4
24–30 January 2027 · 16–22 Sha'ban 1448 AH	salaries	+15.5% (6 years)	+13.8%	−0.1%	+29.2%	5
31 January – 6 February 2027 · 23–29 Sha'ban 1448 AH	—	+18.5% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	−0.1%	+18.4%	5
7–13 February 2027 · 30 Sha'ban – 6 Ramadan 1448 AH	Ramadan	−2.0% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	+0.1%	−2.0%	3
14–20 February 2027 · 7–13 Ramadan 1448 AH	Ramadan, Founding Day break (schools)	−2.4% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	+0.1%	−2.3%	3
21–27 February 2027 · 14–20 Ramadan 1448 AH	Ramadan, Founding Day, Founding Day break (schools), Eid al-Fitr break (schools)	+11.6% (6 years)	−5.0%	+0.1%	+6.7%	4
28 February – 6 March 2027 · 21–27 Ramadan 1448 AH	Ramadan, salaries, Eid al-Fitr break (schools)	+26.5% (6 years)	+13.8%	+0.1%	+40.3%	5
7–13 March 2027 · 28 Ramadan – 5 Shawwal 1448 AH	Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr, Eid al-Fitr break (schools)	−15.0% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−14.9%	1
14–20 March 2027 · 6–12 Shawwal 1448 AH	—	−5.4% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−5.3%	2
21–27 March 2027 · 13–19 Shawwal 1448 AH	—	−8.3% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−8.3%	2
28 March – 3 April 2027 · 20–26 Shawwal 1448 AH	salaries	−5.2% (6 years)	+13.8%	less than 0.1%	+8.5%	4
4–10 April 2027 · 27 Shawwal – 3 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1448 AH	—	−5.2% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−5.2%	2
11–17 April 2027 · 4–10 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1448 AH	—	−3.1% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−3.1%	2
18–24 April 2027 · 11–17 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1448 AH	—	+1.8% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	+1.8%	3
25 April – 1 May 2027 · 18–24 Dhu al-Qa'dah 1448 AH	salaries	+4.6% (5 years)	+13.8%	less than 0.1%	+18.4%	5
2–8 May 2027 · 25 Dhu al-Qa'dah – 2 Dhu al-Hijjah 1448 AH	Eid al-Adha break (schools)	+0.7% (5 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	+0.7%	3
9–15 May 2027 · 3–9 Dhu al-Hijjah 1448 AH	Eid al-Adha break (schools)	+9.9% (5 years)	less than 0.1%	+0.1%	+10.0%	5
16–22 May 2027 · 10–16 Dhu al-Hijjah 1448 AH	Eid al-Adha, Eid al-Adha break (schools)	−17.0% (5 years)	less than 0.1%	+0.1%	−16.9%	1
23–29 May 2027 · 17–23 Dhu al-Hijjah 1448 AH	salaries	−7.4% (5 years)	+13.8%	+0.1%	+6.5%	4
30 May – 5 June 2027 · 24–30 Dhu al-Hijjah 1448 AH	—	−1.7% (5 years)	less than 0.1%	+0.1%	−1.6%	3
6–12 June 2027 · 1–7 Muharram 1449 AH	—	−4.1% (5 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−4.2%	2
13–19 June 2027 · 8–14 Muharram 1449 AH	—	−7.0% (5 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−7.0%	2
20–26 June 2027 · 15–21 Muharram 1449 AH	summer holiday (schools)	−1.7% (5 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−1.7%	3
27 June – 3 July 2027 · 22–28 Muharram 1449 AH	salaries, summer holiday (schools)	+3.6% (5 years)	+13.8%	less than 0.1%	+17.3%	5
4–10 July 2027 · 29 Muharram – 6 Safar 1449 AH	summer holiday (schools)	+6.0% (5 years)	less than 0.1%	−0.1%	+6.0%	4
11–17 July 2027 · 7–13 Safar 1449 AH	summer holiday (schools)	+1.0% (5 years)	less than 0.1%	−0.1%	+0.9%	3
18–24 July 2027 · 14–20 Safar 1449 AH	summer holiday (schools)	−6.2% (5 years)	less than 0.1%	−0.1%	−6.3%	2
25–31 July 2027 · 21–27 Safar 1449 AH	salaries, summer holiday (schools)	−0.3% (5 years)	+13.8%	−0.1%	+13.4%	5
1–7 August 2027 · 28 Safar – 5 Rabi' al-Awwal 1449 AH	summer holiday (schools)	+3.1% (5 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	+3.1%	4
8–14 August 2027 · 6–12 Rabi' al-Awwal 1449 AH	summer holiday (schools)	−0.4% (5 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−0.4%	3
15–21 August 2027 · 13–19 Rabi' al-Awwal 1449 AH	summer holiday (schools)	−2.8% (5 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−2.8%	3
22–28 August 2027 · 20–26 Rabi' al-Awwal 1449 AH	salaries	−5.4% (6 years)	+13.8%	less than 0.1%	+8.3%	4
29 August – 4 September 2027 · 27 Rabi' al-Awwal – 3 Rabi' al-Akhir 1449 AH	—	−5.4% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−5.4%	2
5–11 September 2027 · 4–10 Rabi' al-Akhir 1449 AH	—	−6.6% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−6.6%	2
12–18 September 2027 · 11–17 Rabi' al-Akhir 1449 AH	—	+1.4% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	+1.4%	3
19–25 September 2027 · 18–24 Rabi' al-Akhir 1449 AH	National Day	−1.6% (6 years)	−5.0%	less than 0.1%	−6.6%	2
26 September – 2 October 2027 · 25 Rabi' al-Akhir – 2 Jumada al-Ula 1449 AH	salaries	+1.1% (6 years)	+13.8%	less than 0.1%	+14.8%	5
3–9 October 2027 · 3–9 Jumada al-Ula 1449 AH	—	+4.4% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	+4.3%	4
10–16 October 2027 · 10–16 Jumada al-Ula 1449 AH	—	−4.1% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	−4.1%	2
17–23 October 2027 · 17–23 Jumada al-Ula 1449 AH	—	+2.8% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	+2.7%	3
24–30 October 2027 · 24–30 Jumada al-Ula 1449 AH	salaries	+0.3% (6 years)	+13.8%	less than 0.1%	+14.0%	5
31 October – 6 November 2027 · 1–7 Jumada al-Akhirah 1449 AH	—	+2.6% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	+2.6%	3
7–13 November 2027 · 8–14 Jumada al-Akhirah 1449 AH	—	+3.7% (6 years)	less than 0.1%	less than 0.1%	+3.6%	4

School holidays appear in the “In it” column for information and do not enter the score: we have their dates for one school year only, so we cannot measure their effect.

Season heat: 21 of 52 — weeks scoring 4 or 5 in Saudi Arabia, of which 11 score 5. The quietest · the 52 weeks from 15 November 2026 (5 Jumada al-Akhirah 1448 AH) to 13 November 2027 (14 Jumada al-Akhirah 1449 AH) — Image to share