Do card data capture the market’s direction?
We compare what the Saudi Central Bank’s point-of-sale data say with an independent source: the General Authority for Statistics’ survey of wholesale and retail trade revenue. We publish the result as it is, even when it goes against us.
Point-of-sale spending and the retail trade revenue index grew in the same direction in 10 of 10 quarters, but acceleration and slowdown of growth agreed in only 6 of 9, and the mean difference between them is 5.3 points.
What the result means
Agreeing on direction is easy here because both grew in every quarter; the harder test is acceleration and slowdown. Their agreement on that (6 of 9) is close to what chance gives (about 4.5 of 9), and the correlation between the two growth rates is very weak, i.e. no meaningful relationship. The honest conclusion: card data capture that the market is growing, but are not enough on their own to read its acceleration or slowdown quarter by quarter.
Period: Q1 2024 (Jumada al-Akhirah – Ramadan 1445 AH) to Q2 2026 (Shawwal 1447 – Muharram 1448 AH). Every growth rate here is against the same quarter of the previous year, so seasonal differences between quarters do not enter. Mean SAMA growth over the period +7.1%; mean retail index growth +11.5%.
Point-of-sale spending vs retail trade revenue
| Quarter | SAMA growth | GASTAT growth | Difference (points) | Same direction? | Accelerated or slowed together? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 (Jumada al-Akhirah – Ramadan 1445 AH) | +12.6% | +18.5% | −5.9 | Yes | — |
| Q2 2024 (Ramadan – Dhu al-Hijjah 1445 AH) | +5.9% | +12.7% | −6.9 | Yes | Yes |
| Q3 2024 (Dhu al-Hijjah 1445 – Rabi' al-Awwal 1446 AH) | +8.4% | +7.1% | +1.3 | Yes | No |
| Q4 2024 (Rabi' al-Awwal – Jumada al-Akhirah 1446 AH) | +8.6% | +8.2% | +0.4 | Yes | Yes |
| Q1 2025 (Rajab – Shawwal 1446 AH) | +8.7% | +8.8% | −0.1 | Yes | Yes |
| Q2 2025 (Shawwal 1446 – Muharram 1447 AH) | +2.2% | +14.3% | −12.2 | Yes | No |
| Q3 2025 (Muharram – Rabi' al-Akhir 1447 AH) | +7.3% | +17.0% | −9.7 | Yes | Yes |
| Q4 2025 (Rabi' al-Akhir – Rajab 1447 AH) | +5.1% | +13.6% | −8.5 | Yes | Yes |
| Q1 2026 (Rajab – Shawwal 1447 AH) | +4.4% | +9.6% | −5.2 | Yes | Yes |
| Q2 2026 (Shawwal 1447 – Muharram 1448 AH) | +8.0% | +5.2% | +2.9 | Yes | No |
“Same direction”: both rates positive or both negative. “Accelerated or slowed together”: the growth rate rose from the previous quarter on both sides, or fell on both. Difference = SAMA growth − GASTAT growth.
Sub-component: e-commerce
The only component with a clear counterpart on both sides. Mada online payments grew much faster than the GASTAT index (mean difference 19.1 points), but acceleration and slowdown agreed in 9 of 9 and the correlation is 0.88.
Important caveat: we do not know whether GASTAT’s e-commerce index uses card payment data in its construction. If it does, this agreement is not independent evidence, so we do not rely on it in the conclusion.
All comparisons
| SAMA ↔ GASTAT | Same direction | Accelerated or slowed together | Mean difference (points) | Correlation | Why this pair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point-of-sale payment value ↔ Retail trade operating revenue index | 10 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 5.3 | 0.03 | The closest match to card spending in shops: retail sells to consumers. |
| Point-of-sale payment value ↔ Wholesale and retail trade operating revenue index (whole sector) | 10 of 10 | 7 of 9 | 3.4 | −0.13 | Broader than retail: includes wholesale and vehicle trade and repair, largely sales to businesses. |
| Mada e-commerce payment value ↔ Retail e-commerce sales index | 10 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 19.1 | 0.88 | The matching sub-component: online purchases on both sides. |
| Mada e-commerce payment value ↔ E-commerce sales index (wholesale and retail) | 10 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 27.6 | 0.95 | The online component for the whole sector. |
Not linked: GASTAT also publishes a vehicle sales index, and quarterly point-of-sale data have no matching item, so we did not link it. We did not compare wholesale alone because it is business-to-business, not consumer spending. The correlation is computed from only 10 quarters; the sample is small and one outlier changes it a lot.
What the comparison shows
- General direction: whether cards grow when the market grows, and how far their growth is from the market’s.
- Acceleration and slowdown: whether the growth rate moves together on both sides from quarter to quarter.
- Independence: the GASTAT survey asks establishments about their revenue and does not rely on card data (as far as we know, except the e-commerce caveat).
And what it doesn’t
- Level: it does not say SAMA’s figure is “right” in riyals; it compares direction only. The index is an index, not an amount.
- Cards are part of payments: cash, transfers and deferred payment are outside point of sale, and the index includes sales to businesses.
- City and activity: the comparison is for the whole Kingdom and does not prove the accuracy of any particular city or activity.
- Cause: when they differ in a quarter we do not know which is closer to reality.
Phase 2: listed companies
Preliminary, data to Q2 2026 (Shawwal 1447 – Muharram 1448 AH)
The second independent source: revenues (sales) of retail and service companies listed on the Saudi stock exchange, as announced in their quarterly results. We collected 150 of 150 possible figures (15 companies × 10 quarters, Q1 2024 (Jumada al-Akhirah – Ramadan 1445 AH) to Q2 2026 (Shawwal 1447 – Muharram 1448 AH)), and 150 of them matched a second independent source. 7 companies in 3 activities with at least two companies and a clear match entered the calculation.
Note: revenue is the consolidated group figure: it includes branches outside the Kingdom, online sales, sales to businesses and agencies, and non-retail activities. Point-of-sale spending measures card payments in shops only, for all shops, not these companies. So we compare direction, not level, and a difference in one quarter does not mean either figure is wrong.
Across the activities calculated, direction agreed in 7 of 18 comparisons, and acceleration and slowdown in 7 of 15. The sample is very small (6 quarters per activity), so we draw no conclusion yet and recalculate with every new quarter. The most important finding: when a SAMA activity series drops suddenly while its companies’ revenues keep growing, the drop is most likely a change in how shops are classified, not in spending.
| Activity | Companies | Same direction | Accelerated or slowed together | Mean difference (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronic & Electric Devices | 2 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 5 | 21.5 |
| Food & Beverages | 3 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 5 | 6.6 |
| Pharmacies & Medical Supplies | 2 | 1 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 24.8 |
A company’s name appears only as the source of a figure. No opinion on any company or share. See company names, per-activity tables and the coverage list(Arabic).
Sources: Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) point-of-sale statistics, as republished by KAPSARC, and SAMA monthly point-of-sale data by activity; GASTAT wholesale and retail trade statistics; listed companies’ announced quarterly results. The calculation and comparison are DataPulse’s and are not official statistics. Everything is recalculated at every build, and publishing stops if any figure on the page differs from its recalculation. See source dates, attribution wording, the chart and the CSV downloads(Arabic).