Hypothetical scenario · estimate
Scenario: if half of restaurant orders were delivered
We assume half of restaurant sales reach the customer through delivery platforms, and measure how big that half is and what commissions on it could be.
45.1 billionSAR: size of restaurant sales going through delivery (market size)
6.8 billionSAR: computed commission volume if commission were 15% of order value (market size, not any platform's income)
13.5 billionSAR: computed commission volume if commission were 30% of order value (market size, not any platform's income)
Possible gains
- Small restaurants with few walk-ins may reach new customers; in Korea, sales through platforms of the smallest tenth of restaurants rose about 98%.[3]
- Wider choice without travelling; in five US cities after the 2020 lockdowns, small restaurants still open got 42.9% more orders a day on one platform.[4]
Possible costs
- Commission: one US study assumed 30% of order value for leading platforms without a cap, and platform menu prices about 27% above direct orders.[1]
- Couriers face road injuries; in a UAE hospital registry, 89.3% of injuries among 290 delivery riders came from road collisions.[5]
- More single-use plastic packaging; in Korea, delivery used 72.93 thousand tonnes of it in 2020.[2]
The balance (estimate)
Clearest gainers: owners of small restaurants looking for customers, and customers who prefer ordering at home.
Clearest costs fall on: Clearest cost bearers: restaurants that pay commission, couriers exposed to road injuries, and neighbourhoods receiving more packaging waste.
Strength of evidence: low — The studies come from other countries and periods, there is no direct Saudi measurement of delivery share or commissions, and half of orders is a hypothetical figure.