Hypothetical scenario · estimate
Scenario: staggered start times for work and school
If work and school start times were spread across the morning instead of one hour, how many trips would leave the morning peak?
7.1 millionemployed people and students in Riyadh Region heading out in the morning
495 thousandmorning trips moving out of the peak hour, lower case
1.1 millionmorning trips moving out of the peak hour, upper case
Possible gains
- Those who stay in the peak may spend less time on the road: a Beijing model estimated a cut of about one fifth in the trip time to work.[2]
- In Singapore, pre-peak rides with no fare moved about 7% of riders off the peak, which eased crowding on public transport.[1]
- A German study found no clear link between work start time and pay.[4]
Possible costs
- Families with school-age children: a fixed school start time reduces the gains of flexible work hours, as a theoretical model shows.[5]
- In Singapore, about two thirds of those who did not shift said their work schedule did not allow an earlier trip.[1]
- In a theoretical model, adding staggered start times on top of remote work may raise total commuting costs with no benefit to workers.[3]
The balance (estimate)
Clearest gainers: Clearest gain: people who travel in peak hours on roads and public transport, as crowding falls in models and trials.
Clearest costs fall on: Clearest cost: families with school-age children, and people whose work schedule does not allow a change of start time.
Strength of evidence: low — One trial and a few theoretical models from other cities agree on the direction, but the size differs and there is no direct Saudi measurement.